Labour are very vulnerable on pensions and disabilities. Their own MP’s are hugely uncomfortable with proposed reforms currently working through parliament that could strip financial support away from millions of constituents; almost as uncomfortable as voters. It’s a difficult policy area for Reform, too, but the rewards for getting this right could easily send Nigel Farage into Downing Street.

Reform party leaders and supporters want even steeper welfare cuts than Starmer and Reeves propose. So yes - this is difficult ground for Reform. But if I was looking for an easy way to eat further into Labour votes at the next election, I would try to find a more compassionate approach in the very specific area of supporting genuine disabled people. Reform would still be banging the ‘we need to shrink the size of the state’ drum, but in a more nuanced way.

The first obvious thing Reform can explain is that toughening up laws on immigration and asylum will allow the next government to take greater care of its own citizens. If the gov is not spending billions on hotels, billions on Serco competing against British people in the housing market, billions on other welfare schemes for immigrants awaiting processing of asylum claims, you’d clawback more than double what Labour are targeting from cuts to disability support. Getting Serco the hell out of acquiring 5 year tenancies from private landlords at above market rates would reduce pressure on housing benefits, as well as lessening the need for local council interventions to avoid adding to the homeless pile.

In Runcorn, Labour sources tell us of constant messages they heard on the ground from voters disgusted about ending winter fuel payments for pensioners, and very severe PIP (Personal Independence Payments) cuts to disabled persons support.

The real difficulty of the balancing act is not alienating Reform’s own supporter base when it comes to cutting welfare budgets. So I know innovation will still be needed around getting more people off benefits and back into work, especially younger people. But if Reform can find a way to do this while also making the disability welfare reforms seem a lot more fair, compassionate and palatable, they will inflict enormous damage on Labour and Starmer at the next election.

Support for pensioners is a no-brainer and has wide support among Tory and Reform voters. I would look at carefully reintroducing Winter Fuel Allowance as efficiently as possible, while still excluding people who really don’t need that money (but only if this segregated approach is less expensive than administering the means-testing).

The beauty of some of this political innovation is it goes places the Tories dare not, given their own track record for attacking the poor and disabled in government.

I do not underestimate the scale of this challenge. But as I stare at the size of the huge, empty, unguarded goal net, I really do think this would be the political game-changer that sweeps Reform to power.

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